The $4.1 trillion dollar question

With the two largest economies in the world at loggerheads, many investors and commentators are trying to figure out the end game. Alex Duffy, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity instead suggests focussing on the impacts on individual markets.

“Specifically, when I look at China, I’m far less worried about the impact of a tariff on $400B or $500B worth of goods. Tariffs of 15-20% on $400 billion isn’t a huge delta in terms of the overall trade balance. Where it is far more relevant, is what it means for the currency.”¹

Alex explain the tail risk that this creates, and some of the tools China has at its disposal to manage these risks.

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¹ References made to currency are in US dollars.

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This document is issued by FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009, AFSL No. 409340 (‘Fidelity Australia’). Fidelity Australia is a member of the FIL Limited group of companies commonly known as Fidelity International. Prior to making any investment decision, investors should consider seeking independent legal, taxation, financial or other relevant professional advice. This document is intended as general information only and has been prepared without taking into account any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. You should also consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statements (‘PDS’) for any Fidelity Australia product mentioned in this document before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. The PDS can be obtained by contacting Fidelity Australia on 1800 044 922 or by downloading it from our website at www.fidelity.com.au. The relevant Target Market Determination (TMD) is available via www.fidelity.com.au. This document may include general commentary on market activity, sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions that should not be taken as investment advice. Information stated about specific securities may change. Any reference to specific securities should not be taken as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold these securities. You should consider these matters and seeking professional advice before acting on any information. Any forward-looking statements, opinions, projections and estimates in this document may be based on market conditions, beliefs, expectations, assumptions, interpretations, circumstances and contingencies which can change without notice, and may not be correct. Any forward-looking statements are provided as a general guide only and there can be no assurance that actual results or outcomes will not be unfavourable, worse than or materially different to those indicated by these forward-looking statements. Any graphs, examples or case studies included are for illustrative purposes only and may be specific to the context and circumstances and based on specific factual and other assumptions. They are not and do not represent forecasts or guides regarding future returns or any other future matters and are not intended to be considered in a broader context. While the information contained in this document has been prepared with reasonable care, to the maximum extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted for any errors or omissions or misstatements however caused. Past performance information provided in this document is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The document may not be reproduced, transmitted or otherwise made available without the prior written permission of Fidelity Australia. The issuer of Fidelity’s managed investment schemes is Fidelity Australia.

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07 November 2018

Alex Duffy

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The $4.1 trillion dollar question

Alex Duffy

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